Premier Provenance of Pollution

This is utterly embarrassing for the Philippines. No excuse period.

Source: OWID

The world is going to be filled with more older people

 

Stata codes are:

#delimit ;

twoway

(line below5 year, lwidth(vthick) lcolor(red))

(line above65 year, lwidth(vthick) lcolor(blue))

,

subtitle("{bf:Young Children and Older People as a Percentage}" "{bf:of Global Population: 1950-2050}", color(white))

ylab(0 "0%" 5 "5%" 10 "10%" 15 "15%" 20 "20%", grid gmin gmax angle(0) labcolor(white) noticks)

xlab(1950(10)2050, labcolor(white) noticks)

xtitle("")

xsize(6)

legend(off)

graphregion(fcolor(ebblue))

plotregion(fcolor(white))

text(15.5 1965 "{bf:Age <5}")

text(4 1965 "{bf:Age 65+}")

note(" " "Source: United Nations. {it:World Population Prospects 2019}." "Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/", size(small) color(white))

;

#delimit cr

Religiosity and Poverty

One of the most ironic things about religious societies is how everyone tries to spend substantial resources to celebrate religious festivals. Particularly for low income families, they would even go as far as borrow money and essentially decrease future flows of disposable income. Maybe they derive some non-economic benefits from it much similar to how people in the other side of the spectrum (a.k.a. rich people) get into philanthropy.

These thoughts are exactly what I found in the latest NBER paper by Eduardo Montero and Dean Yang. Entitled "Religious Festivals and Economic Development: Evidence from Catholic Saint Day Festivals in Mexico", Montero and Yang showed that in Mexico, agriculturally-coinciding festivals have negative effects on household income and other development outcomes. They also lead to lower agricultural productivity and higher share of the labor force in agriculture, consistent with agriculturally-coinciding festivals inhibiting the structural transformation of the economy. So why do these families persist on spending beyond their means? They showed that agriculturally-coinciding festivals also lead to higher religiosity and social capital, potentially explaining why such festivals persist in spite of their negative growth consequences.

I guess this is one of those cases where non-economic benefits outweigh the economic ones. These humans are still rational beings.

Replicating Economist Chart with Range Plot

In our recent paper, we expected government spending across countries to increase in 2020 as a response to the COVID pandemic, and to also fund programs that protect people, jobs, and businesses during the recession caused by the pandemic. Once economies start to bounce back in 2021, government spending is expected to fall for the next couple of years.

This has been analyzed by the Economist, and below I am replicating one of the charts they presented. For this one, I am using data from IMF's World Economic Outlook.

Codes are as follows:

keep if year>=2019 & year<=2021
keep if country=="Indonesia" | country=="Malaysia" | country=="Philippines" | country=="Vietnam"
egen low=min(debt),by(country)
egen high=max(debt),by(country)
reshape wide debt, i(countrylow high) j(year)
egen cty=group(country)
labmask cty, val(country)

#delimit ;
twoway
(rcapsym high low cty, horizontal lcolor(black) msym(none))
(scatter cty debt2019, msym(S) msize(large) mcolor(ebblue))
(scatter cty debt2020, msym(S) msize(large) mcolor(cranberry))
(scatter cty debt2021, msym(S) msize(large) mcolor(gold))
,
title("{bf:Governments wants to slow debt}" "{bf:expansion after jump in 2020}", justification(left) pos(11) span)
subtitle("(public debt as a % of GDP)", justification(left) pos(11) span)
ylab(1(1)4, valuelabel grid gmin gmax angle(0) noticks nogextend labsize(large))
ysca(lcolor(none) reverse)
ytitle("")
xlab(0(20)80, grid gmin gmax noticks labsize(large))
xsca(lcolor(none) alt)
xline(0, lcolor(black))
xsize(4)
plotregion(lcolor(none))
legend(order(2 "2019" 3 "2020" 4 "2021") row(1) pos(11) size(large) region(lcolor(none)) span)
note(" " "Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.", span size(medium))
;
#delimit cr